Templeton Asian Bond W(Acc)EUR

Analyst Report
Morningstar's Take
|26/06/2024

by Arvind Subramanian
While Templeton Asian Bond’s well-resourced team stands out, risk management concerns result in a downgrade of its Process Pillar rating to Below Average from Average.

The strategy has been led by Michael Hasenstab, CIO of the firm’s global macro team since its October 2005 inception. The day-to-day portfolio management is handled by Singapore-based comanager Vivek Ahuja. The strategy also saw the addition of Calvin Ho, the group’s research leader, to the manager lineup in December 2022. The trio is part of a highly experienced 21-member global macro unit that stands out for its deep experience and relative stability.

The managers have significant latitude to take concentrated positions in single issuers or currencies, including off-benchmark positions, in this Asian local-currency bond strategy. Examples include a short position in US Treasuries from 2016 to early 2020 that led to a negative overall duration, a zero weighting in China (which accounts for roughly a fifth of the benchmark) since 2023, and aggressive currency bets. However, the team has not always managed this flexibility well, and its willingness to back its views to the hilt has resulted in prolonged periods of underperformance. We have reservations over the team’s risk management capabilities in the absence of adequate guardrails. Such concentrated bets have not paid off for investors, particularly in the context of an already narrow Asian investment universe.

The team’s missteps in recent years have pushed the fund’s five- and 10-year ranking in the bottom decile of its peers. Its struggles have stemmed from its contrarian short US duration position, which stung in 2019 and 2020, and misplaced currency bets in 2023. While it can make up ground in a hurry, it remains unclear whether the team’s distinct investing style is well suited to achieve results commensurate with their risks over time.
 
Morningstar Medalist Rating™Not worth the risk.
To find out how Morningstar rates a fund click here.
Morningstar Pillars
PeopleAbove Average
ParentAverage
ProcessBelow Average
 
Morningstar Medalist RatingMorningstar assigns the Medalist Rating to funds that are qualitatively and quantitatively assessed through manager research and algorithmic processes. The assessment turns on three key “pillars” – People, Process, and Parent – that yield an estimate of how well a fund will perform before fees but after adjusting for risk.
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